Modeling the Human Decision Making Process in Maritime Interdiction Using Conceptual Blending Theory

Simulation Interoperability Standards Organization (SISO) papers and Behavior Representation in Modeling and Simulation (BRIMS)This paper describes a model of the human decision-making process in maritime interdiction tactical operation using conceptual blending theory (CBT) and software blending mechanism. CBT explains how humans think using blending operations on mental spaces. This paper uses CBT to model Boyd’s Observation-Orientation- Decision-Act Loop Theory, a mental process used by military commanders to make decisions. The software blending mechanism is implemented using the Naval Postgraduate School’s first-generation Software Blending library. Military expert’s experiences were captured using a similar strategy implemented in the threat assessment model created by Liebhaber and Feher. Probability Estimates of Event (PEoE) is used to represent the significant of each possible tactic used by potential threats. Several PEoE are used to represent the mental patterns for recognizing a threat situation. Finally, decisions are derived using linear assignment, an optimality approach that considers threat attack probability, goals and interdiction resource effectiveness. The model was tested in a simulated maritime threat environment in order to evaluate its ability to coordinate interdictions by patrol crafts. These test results were reviewed by experienced naval warfare officers who gave feedback on the quality of the software generated decisions

Riverine sustainment 2012

Student Integrated ProjectIncludes supplementary materialThis technical report analyzed the Navy's proposed Riverine Force (RF) structure and capabilities for 2012. The Riverine Sustainment 2012 Team (RST) examined the cost and performance of systems of systems which increased RF sustainment in logistically barren environments. RF sustainment was decomposed into its functional areas of supply, repair, and force protection. The functional and physical architectures were developed in parallel and were used to construct an operational architecture for the RF. The RST used mathematical, agent-based and queuing models to analyze various supply, repair and force protection system alternatives. Extraction of modeling data revealed several key insights. Waterborne heavy lift connectors such as the LCU-2000 are vital in the re-supply of the RF when it is operating up river in a non-permissive environment. Airborne heavy lift connectors such as the MV-22 were ineffective and dominated by the waterborne variants in the same environment. Increase in manpower and facilities did appreciable add to the operational availability of the RF. Mean supply response time was the biggest factor effecting operational availability and should be kept below 24 hours to maintain operational availability rates above 80%. Current mortar defenses proposed by the RF are insufficient.N

Tactical plan generation software for maritime interdiction using conceptual blending theory

This paper describes a plan generation software for maritime interdiction tactical operation using conceptual blending theory (CBT) and software blending mechanism. CBT explains how human think using mental spaces and mental operators. This paper uses CBT to model Boyd's Observation-Orientation-Decision-Act Loop Theory, a mental process used by military commanders to make decision. Bio-inspired operators are used to monitor cues from the real world. Expert's experiences were captured using a similar strategy implemented in the threat assessment model created by Liebhaber and Feher. Probability Estimates of Events (PEoE) are used to represent the significance of each possible tactic used by potential threats. Several PEoE are used to represent the mental patterns used to recognize a threat situation. Finally, decision is derived using linear assignment, an optimality approach that considers threat attack probability, goals and interdiction resource effectiveness. Experienced naval warfare officers have given positive feedback on the results presented and commented that the model resembles the cognitive process of a decision maker in tactical plan generation. The model has also been tested in a Simkit-based simulator to coordinate patrol craft's maritime interdiction process.http://archive.org/details/tacticalplgenera109453044Singapore DSO National Laboratories author (civilian).Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

LEARNING AND PREDICTION OF RELATIONAL TIME SERIES

Prediction of events is fundamental to both human and artificial agents. The main problem with previous prediction techniques is that they cannot predict events that have never been experienced before. This dissertation addresses the problem of predicting such novelty by developing algorithms and computational models inspired from recent cognitive science theories conceptual blending theory and event segmentation theory. We were able to show that prediction accuracy for event or state prediction can be significantly improved using these methods. The main contribution of this dissertation is a new class of prediction techniques inspired by conceptual blending that improves prediction accuracy overall and has the ability to predict even events that have never been experienced before. We also show that event segmentation theory, when integrated with these techniques, results in greater computational efficiency. We implemented the new prediction techniques, and more traditional alternatives such as Markov and Bayesian techniques, and compared their prediction accuracy quantitatively for three domains a role-playing game, intrusion-system alerts, and event prediction of maritime paths in a discrete-event simulator. Other contributions include two new unification algorithms that improve over a nave one, and an exploration of ways to maintain a minimum-size knowledge base without affecting prediction accuracy.http://archive.org/details/learningandpredi1094532907Civilian, SingaporeApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited